Are you loving (or hating) the skirmish between Oracle and HP?  Pay attention, because this is the art and science of two master playmakers at work, however puerile or professional...your call.

Influence Strategy is a discipline that tells the story of the moves and countermoves of media masters.  It's the new essential companion piece to business strategy.  It explains how intangible assets -- reputation, credibility, perception -- are managed in the courts of public opinion.

Witness the recent spats and spitting contests between HP's incoming chairman, Ray Lane, and Oracle's long-standing CEO, Larry Ellison.  Each man is attempting to disable the right-hand-man of each guy's right-hand-guy.  They're doing it through influence stratagems -- what the Playmaker's Standard Table of Influence Strategies defines as "plays" in a spectrum of 25 irreducible possibilities.

We know this because we've written the book on the subject, The Elements of Influence.  And because of our direct and extensive experience with Oracle, HP, SAP and their respective leaders -- the key players in this finger-pointing spinfest.  Here's the latest:

Oracle's release of a statement by Larry Ellison -- that Ray Lane won't want Leo Apotheker, former SAP chief and newly-picked HP CEO, to be anywhere close to the impending trial against software rival SAP -- is classic Ellison.  What's the play?  There are two, actually:

• The Red Herring:  As in hunting, Ellison is tossing a fragrant morsel for the media pack to chase -- away from the inconvenient revelations (and proclamations by Ray Lane) that Ellison's new co-president, Mark Hurd, has more baggage than merit badges in his heretofore celebrated stint as HP's CEO.  He's trying to counter Ray Lane's recent accusations (Mirror plays) that Hurd was less than Boy Scout with his former board.
• The Crazy Ivan:  As in The Hunt for Red October, where cold war submarines turn and charge their pursuer, this play is not so crazy.  Ellison's unctuous suggestion, that Ray knows better than to let Leo be supoenaed for his trial, is form-fit to the play's definition:  The deliberate invitation or initiation by a player to alter the course or circumstances of a rival's attack...

What's next?  Watch for other players (like buy-rating Wall Street analysts, friends-of-Larry, even Hurd himself) to accelerate Larry's stun-and-run strategies.  Likewise, watch for players (like HP's board, even Apotheker too) to expose the diversionary Red Herring and taunting Crazy Ivan.  Click on either play (see links above) and consult the "counter" and "collaborate" tabs to predict which plays they'll employ.

And who said enterprise IT is a dead or dying industry?  Google and Apple have nothing on these guys.

Posted by Alan Kelly

Crazy Ivans are usually used as a last resort and can sometimes have the opposite intended effect. Earlier this year, Google employed a last-ditch Crazy Ivan when it aggressively fought China-based cyber-attacks by shutting down some operations in China.

Luckily for Google, its Crazy Ivan paid off. On Friday, July 9, the Chinese government announced that it had renewed its license with the popular search engine. Google can now provide mainland users with a link to the Hong Kong-based search engine that is uncensored while the mainland website is still censored.

As with Crazy Ivans, the risk/reward level was high. Had Google’s license not been renewed, it could have lost out on billions of dollars in future revenue and ceded an entire country’s search result to rival players. But with the benefit of hindsight, Google’s crazy strategy paid off.

Posted by: Alice Hu

Photo Credit: wallydownundy.com